Climate impact on social systems: the risk assessment approach

A novel approach to the problem of estimating climate impact on social systems is suggested. This approach is based on a risk concept, where the notion of critical events is introduced and the probability of such events is estimated. The estimation considers both the inherent stochasticity of climatic processes and the artificial stochasticity of climate predictions due to scientific uncertainties. The method is worked out in some detail for the regional problem of crop production and the risks associated with global climate change, and illustrated by a case study (Kursk region of the FSU). In order to get local climatic characteristics (weather), a so-called statistical weather generator is used. One interesting finding is that the 3% risk level remains constant up to 1.0–1.1°C rise of mean seasonal temperature, if the variance does not change. On the other hand, the risk grows rapidly with increasing variance (even if the mean temperature rises very slowly). The risk approach is able to separate two problems: (i) assessment of global change impact, and (ii) decision making. The main task for the scientific community is to provide the politicians with different options; the choice of admissible (from the social point of view) critical events and the corresponding risk levels is the business of decision makers.     

基于耦合模型的安徽经济与环境协调发展分析

构建了经济发展与生态环境评价指标体系，选用耦合协调度模型计算2010—2019年安徽省不同区域经济发展与生态环境的耦合协调度，并采用灰色关联度法计算评价指标与耦合协调度的关联系数。研究结果表明：全省经济发展与生态环境的耦合协调度整体呈改善趋势，耦合协调度集中分布在0.393~0.765，基本处于良好协调或低水平协调阶段。全省不同区域的生态环境指数均大于经济发展指数。省会城市、沿江江南地区耦合协调度高于江淮之间和淮河以北地区。工业"三废"排放量、环境质量、环境污染治理力度是影响经济发展与生态环境耦合协调度的重要因素，建议通过改善这些方面进一步提升经济与环境的耦合协调度水平。     

“引江济太”对太湖北部底质及水质总磷的影响

应用GIS技术研究了"引江济太"对太湖北部底质与水质总磷(TP)浓度的影响。研究结果表明,2014—2019年,调水北部沿线4个点位底质TP浓度降幅为59.8%～80.5%;不同点位的水质TP浓度变化存在差异,入湖口点位下降14.1%,沿线其他点位分别上升37.4%、38.6%和45.0%。从空间分布来看,太湖水质TP始终呈明显的"西高东低"分布特点,但底质TP的分布未显示出该类规律。望亭水利枢纽调水情况与入湖口5#点位底质TP浓度呈一定程度的正相关,在调水入湖水量大于出湖水量的年份,5#点位底质TP浓度会偏高。"引江济太"会对太湖北部调水沿线,特别是入湖口附近水域的TP含量产生较大影响,并通过水流迁移与底质再悬浮释放影响下游水域。如何降低望虞河及周边支流的入湖泥沙量将是今后开展科学调水、保障贡湖水源地水质安全的重点研究方向之一。     

2017年上半年北京市及周边地区空气质量特征分析

依托北京市、廊坊市和保定市高密度的地面空气质量监测、气象要素监测以及PM_2.5化学组分监测和后向轨迹分析等手段，对2017年上半年三地的空气质量进行分析。研究发现：三地中北京市空气质量较好，保定市较差。分污染物来看，保定市SO₂浓度水平明显高于廊坊市和北京市，颗粒物PM₁₀和PM_2.5也呈现保定市最高、北京市最低的规律。从污染物日变化来看，CO、SO₂、NO₂、PM₁₀和PM_2.5呈双峰型分布，O₃呈单峰型分布。从区域整体分布规律来看，PM_2.5和SO₂呈现明显的"南高北低"特征。PM_2.5化学组分分析结果表明：1—4月燃煤对该区域空气质量的影响较大，5—6月机动车排放的影响更为凸显。后向轨迹分析结果表明：在2017年上半年到达北京市的气流中有24%来自于北京市南部，且这些气流多为低空传输，表明区域传输对于北京市空气质量具有一定的影响。     

Occurrence of dissolved PAHs in the Jinsha River (Panzhihua)--upper reaches of the Yangtze River,Southwest China

16 priority polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) were determined in water samples from the Jinsha River (Panzhihua part), Southwest China. Total dissolved PAH concentrations varied from 21.89 microg l(-1) to 382.8 microg l(-1). It was found that the concentration of PAHs decreased along the flow direction due to the higher density distribution of coal chemical industry in the upstream of our study rivers. The pollution levels in our study area are significantly higher than previously reported values in other waters both in China and other countries. The predominance of benzo[k]fluoranthene and indeno[1,2,3-cd]pyrene was clearly observed in all water samples. On average these two compounds accounted for 98.3% of the total dissolved PAH concentration in water. The results showed the positive correlations among total dissolved PAHs, benzo[k]fluoranthene and indeno[1,2,3-cd]pyrene, which suggested that these two predominant PAHs have similar source and environmental behaviors in our study area. When compared with the survey results of organic micropollutants two decades ago, it was found that hydrocarbon pollution both predominated and even increased with the development of coal chemical industry in this area during the past 20 years. The results therefore provide important information on the current contamination status of a key industrial city in China, and points to the need for urgent action to investigate the relationship between the PAH composition and concentration in water from the Jinsha River and the wastewater discharge from coal chemical industry, and to identify the source, transport pathway and fate of PAHs in the area. It should then be necessary to adopt appropriate and instant measures to control the pollution around this area.     

浅谈小型餐饮服务业排污申报登记

简述了小型餐饮服务业的特点，指出排污申报登记制度落实难、废水中各污染物排放量核定难及申报登记表设计欠合理是小型餐饮服务业在排污申报登记中存在的主要问题。提出，应加大宣传力度，进一步提高餐饮服务业业主以及广大公民的环保意识；制定较合理的排污量核算系数，修订申报内容；实行《排污申报登记注册证》制度，强化执法力度，以促进小型餐饮服务业全面实施排污申报登记制度。     

城市人居环境的协调发展度研究——以上海市青浦区为例

城市人居环境的可持续发展体系是一个由人口、社会、资源、环境与经济5个子系统构成的开放巨系统。通过提出综合衡量系统“协调性”和“发展水平”的“协调发展度”模型，研究人居环境复合系统内5个子系统之间协调发展度情况。并运用灰色预测理论构建GM（1，N）动态模型，预测未来几年各子系统之间协调发展的状况。     

稀土酞菁锰对表面活性剂(LAS)的催化氧化性能研究

研究了一种新型含稀土酞菁锰(KCeO2MnPcX)催化剂对水中表面活性剂直链烷基苯磺酸钠(LAS)氧化降解的催化性能,讨论了影响催化氧化反应的各种因素,并确定了最佳反应条件。同时初步探讨了这种催化剂对表面活性剂的催化氧化机理,为处理表面活性剂废水提供了新的途径。     

花岗岩类岩体与金矿床成因关系的探讨

花岗岩类岩体与金矿床存在着密切的空间联系，其成因关系一直是矿床学界争论的焦点，目前传统的岩浆热液成因观点仍居统治地位。随着地质资料的积累，高温高压实验技术，尤其是金矿床同位素定年技术的进展，传统观点受到了严峻挑战。成岩成矿的时代与时差、成矿流体的来源和成矿物质的来源等确定金矿床成因类型关键因素的综合研究表明，有密切空间关系的金矿床与花岗岩类岩体之间，在多数情况下两者并无直接的成因联系，金矿床不是岩浆热液成因，而是与大气降水或建造水有关的改造成矿作用的产物。     

锑的淡水水质基准及其对我国水质标准的启示

针对我国锑水生生物水质基准缺乏的问题，收集筛选了锑对淡水水生生物的急性和慢性毒性数据，使用评价因子法、毒性百分数排序法和物种敏感度分布法分别推导我国锑的淡水水质基准，通过综合分析和比较，选择物种敏感度分布法推导的急性和慢性的水质基准值（466.62μg/L和88.71μg/L）作为最终的基准推荐值.通过与国内外现有锑相关水质标准进行比较，提出在我国相关水质标准修订中分别制定保护水生生物和人体健康水质标准的建议，避免水质标准对水生生物的"过保护"问题.